How to navigate the enrollment cliff in higher education
Higher education industry analysts predict plummeting enrollment numbers starting in 2025. This drop — nicknamed the “enrollment cliff” — is the projected result of several intersecting demographic shifts. If you’re concerned about these predictions and want to maintain healthy enrollment numbers at your institution, understanding the risks and developing a proactive strategy to address them is vital.
What is the enrollment cliff and why is it happening?
Analysts have identified a cluster of demographic factors they expect will cause a steep decline — or “cliff” — in enrollment numbers, including:
Falling birth rates: The general fertility rate in the United States has fallen to a historic low after a 3 percent drop from 2022-2023. Since similarly developed nations are experiencing the same low birth rates, we’re unlikely to see major increases anytime soon. As fewer children are born and make their way through school, the pool of potential students is shrinking.
Stagnating graduate enrollment rates: It’s possible for enrollment numbers to survive falling birth rates if the number of high school graduates enrolling in college increases faster than the birth rate falls. But the proportion of high school graduates going straight into tertiary education has hovered at just under 70 percent for the last decade. There’s no sign of an upward trend to offset our low birth rate.
Declining public trust: From 2015 to 2024, the portion of Americans with “a great deal or quite a lot” of confidence in higher education fell from 57 percent to 36 percent. The main concerns behind this decline in confidence are perceived political bias, lack of relevance to career success, and unaffordable fees. Institutions must overcome these perceptions to improve enrollment numbers.
Competing options: Many Americans now consider a trade school or vocational college qualification better than a university degree for landing a desirable job. Employees are taking advantage of online courses and employer-provided courses instead of pursuing degrees to develop their professional skills.
Is the enrollment cliff in higher education a real concern?
Though only time will tell where these trends go in the long term and how well colleges respond, the demographic factors do pose real risks in the medium term.
In the 1980s, analysts anticipated a similar enrollment cliff that never came. Contrary to expectations, shifts in job market demands and increased college attendance among women boosted enrollment numbers despite declining fertility.
While it’s possible for expectations to be wrong again, a sudden uptick in nationwide college demand seems unlikely this time around. More colleges are already feeling the effects of declining enrollment numbers. The decline caused 28 degree-granting institutions to close in the first nine months of 2024 alone, marking a substantial jump from the 15 that closed throughout 2023.
We believe proactive institutions can continue to thrive despite today’s challenges. But the enrollment cliff poses real risks that higher education administrators must face head-on to overcome.
How could an enrollment cliff impact higher education institutions?
Maintaining healthy enrollment numbers is vital for:
Institutional revenue: Enrollment numbers have a direct relationship with your tuition revenue. Depending on your institutional model, this could be your main source of income.
Academic quality: If revenue drops with enrollment, institutions may have to cut programs, faculty, and technology. This can impact curricula and teaching quality.
Student success: Student success depends on quality instruction, facilities, and support services. If an enrollment cliff reduces tuition revenue, these key resources can become strained, undermining student results.
Faculty livelihoods: If enrollment and revenue fall, this can affect the financial well-being and career prospects of faculty members. Even if an institution avoids layoffs, declining student numbers and tuition revenue can lead to fewer research grants and professional development opportunities. This makes it difficult to attract and retain the faculty members best equipped to promote student success.
Economic and social progress: Your institution prepares students to excel as professionals and citizens. An enrollment cliff could lead to skill gaps, reduced social mobility, and fewer discoveries and innovations. By implementing proactive strategies to maintain healthy enrollment, you serve local communities and the regional and national economy.
How can we prepare for a student enrollment cliff?
Preparing to face the demographic challenges to your enrollment numbers is essential to protect your institution’s vitality and the value it provides to stakeholders. Use these 12 key strategies to overcome the enrollment cliff instead of going over it.
1. Collaborate with educational institutions
Higher education institutions must collaborate with each other and other educational institutions in the face of an enrollment cliff. Here are two effective partnership approaches your institution can consider:
Dual enrollment: With a dual enrollment program, high school students can take college courses and get college credits. Studies show that dual-enrollment students are more likely to choose a four-year degree and graduate. Your institution can partner with high schools to encourage students to take dual enrollment courses and earn college credits.
College transfers: While many community college students aspire to earn bachelor’s degrees, only 16 percent do so within six years. Four-year universities can partner with community colleges to make the transfer process seamless. Offering financial aid and dedicated support to transfer students is also beneficial. Additionally, partnering institutions can examine their transfer student data to look for trends and determine specific transfer challenges.
2. Offer student support resources
Providing robust student support resources can help attract new enrollees. But it also boosts retention, which is vital for your institution’s viability during a potential enrollment cliff. These resources help students feel valued, stay engaged, and persist through challenges to complete their qualifications. Impactful student support resources include:
Mental health counseling
Academic advice, mentorship, and tutoring
Career counseling and internship networks
Language services for international students
Accessibility and inclusion offices
On-campus health and security services
Student organizations and clubs
Child care facilities
Financial aid
3. Leverage student surveys
Student surveys are powerful tools for gathering firsthand feedback on every aspect of the student experience. You can leverage the insights from these surveys to identify issues and implement improvements.
For example, if students rate their learning experience as less practical or relevant to their intended career, you could develop partnerships with local businesses to create internships. You could also address these concerns by incorporating more project-based learning into your programs. Changes like these can enhance your institution’s reputation among potential enrollees and promote retention.
Be transparent about the feedback you’ve received and how you’re applying it. This will encourage participation in future surveys and set your institution apart as one that listens to its students and is always improving.
4. Streamline the application process
Difficult application processes discourage prospective students from submitting complete applications and enrolling. Simplifying your application process can encourage more students to start the application process, complete it, and arrive for class on day one. Ways to streamline your application process include:
Offering both online and paper applications.
Ensuring online applications respond well on all device types, including smartphones.
Applying user-friendly and accessible web design principles to online applications.
Providing a translation function for non-native English speakers.
Reducing questions and required documents to the minimum necessary for evaluating applications.
Creating an application support service for prospective students who need help.
Automating follow-up for incomplete applications.
Sharing video tutorials and other guides.
5. Welcome international students
International students only made up 5.6 percent of all students at American colleges in the 2022-2023 academic year. This is low compared to countries like Australia and the United Kingdom, which have drawn roughly a quarter of their enrollments from international students. As potential domestic enrollees may become scarce in the coming years, welcoming more international students could help your institution grow while enhancing diversity. You can encourage international applicants by:
Forming international student unions and clubs.
Catering for global tastes in cafeterias and dining halls.
Including international perspectives in curricula.
Providing language services.
Investing in marketing initiatives outside the U.S.
Assisting with student visa applications and finding accommodation.
Develop partnerships with international institutions.
6. Celebrate diversity
Cultivate your identity as an institution embracing diversity. This can help you attract and retain women and minority students.
Legal shifts in many parts of the country are undermining affirmative action as a strategy for recruiting a diverse student body. But most of the regulatory moves only prohibit considering identifiers like race for admissions and other benefits. In most cases, you should still be free to:
Run marketing campaigns to highlight your commitment to promoting DEIB at your institution.
Provide student support resources to help students from every background thrive.
Implement robust anti-discrimination procedures to protect women and minorities.
Introduce anti-bias training and inclusivity workshops.
Support student societies that celebrate diverse identities.
Incorporate diverse perspectives into curricula.
7. Enhance accessibility
Around 21 percent of American undergraduate students and 11 percent of graduate students have disabilities. Providing the necessary support for students of all abilities to succeed is vital to your retention strategy. It can also encourage prospective students with disabilities to apply. Ways to enhance accessibility include:
Establishing mentorship programs for students and faculty with disabilities.
Ensuring all on-campus spaces are accessible to students with diverse physical abilities.
Providing instructional and assessment tools for students with complete loss of sight and other disabilities.
Offering aids like braille services, sign language interpreters, and other accommodations.
Broadening your pool of potential students is essential for overcoming an enrollment cliff. However, some students find it difficult to commit to conventional class schedules. This could be because of work, family commitments, or logistical challenges. Providing flexible learning options can help attract and retain these students. Flexible learning could involve:
Remote or hybrid course options.
Modular curriculum design.
Self-paced or extended degree pathways.
Flexible assessment timelines.
9. Invest in marketing
Effective marketing could be your institution’s superpower for maintaining or growing your enrollment numbers. This requires clear, strategic messaging about your institution’s identity and the benefits it offers students. To survive and thrive beyond the projected enrollment cliff, leverage marketing that:
Embraces social media platforms as key channels for reaching prospective students.
Interacts authentically on these platforms to encourage engagement.
Avoids perpetuating political biases in content.
Associates your institutional brand identity with relatable faces and personalities.
Emphasizes practical, career-oriented programs and teaching approaches.
Shows how graduating from your institution can set up career success with living examples.
Targets international students with culturally sensitive and relevant messaging.
Welcomes underrepresented demographics.
10. Expand and refresh programs
Diversifying your program options can appeal to broader interests and attract more students. Keeping your programs aligned with industry demands could help reach prospective students who believe colleges don’t teach relevant skills. Consider using labor market data to inspire new course offerings and curriculum updates. You could introduce new majors or curriculum chapters covering the latest technologies and in-demand skills. Take an industry-facing approach to curriculum development by:
Conducting industry research and analysis based on market data and industry reports.
Engaging with on-the-ground industry stakeholders for feedback on your curricula.
Aligning learning outcomes with industry needs.
Providing professional development opportunities for faculty to stay in touch with industry trends.
Emphasizing sought-after soft skills like problem-solving, critical thinking, and teamwork.
Forming industry partnerships for internships and other practical learning opportunities.
Implementing regular curriculum reviews to evaluate relevance.
Committing to continuous improvement across programs.
11. Provide financial assistance
More than a quarter of Americans with very little confidence in higher education cite financial concerns as a reason. Difficulty affording tuition holds back students who might otherwise enroll at your institution. Financial aid can help overcome this obstacle. Financial aid strategies include:
Providing internal scholarships and rebates based on merit or financial need.
Creating on-campus employment opportunities for students looking to earn while studying.
Helping students find and apply for scholarships, private bursaries, federal loans, and other external funding opportunities.
Even if some of your financial aid strategies reduce the average tuition you receive from each student, they may still leave you better off if they allow you to enroll more students.
12. Diversify revenue streams
While maintaining tuition revenue is vital, your institution could also pursue additional revenue streams to protect your financial health through an enrollment cliff. These could include:
Research grants
Corporate sponsorships
Online continuing education programs
Leasing campus facilities
Monetized social media content
Digital products like eBooks, online courses, and webinars
Merchandise based on your institution’s brand
Fundraising for on-campus initiatives
Support students from enrollment to graduation with Watermark
The enrollment cliff is a real concern, but it’s a challenge your institution can overcome through strategic planning for recruitment and retention. Watermark Student Success & Engagement is a software solution to help you bring these strategies to life. Student Success & Engagement can help you:
Track student progress through application and re-enrollment processes to improve enrollment numbers.
Empower students to schedule support appointments, complete tasks, and access resources from the mobile app.
Create flexible, guided learning pathways to support students in diverse circumstances.
Leverage predictive models to intervene early and help students complete their studies.
Institutions using this solution enjoy 260 percent more engagements with students and a 6 percent retention rate increase after one year. Try a free demo to learn more about how Student Success & Engagement can help you maintain and grow a thriving student population.
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