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This document is the first in a series of reports created for the Minority Male Success Initiative (MMSI) for the North Carolina Community College System (NCCCS). The purpose of the MMSI designed and funded by the NCCCS is to (1) increase the progression and completion rate of minority males, and (2) increase the utilization of campus resources and services through deliberate and intentional interactions between students and the campus community.
Watermark has teamed up with NCCCS and eleven schools to provide an Institutional Benchmark Report (IBR) and three End of Year Performance Progress Reports (EOY) for a deeper understanding of the population at each institution so that specific training and outreach messaging can be created to better serve these students. This quantitative analysis sets out to identify student characteristics correlated with student outcomes, measuring course completion and student persistence for minority male students on campus, and determine how those correlating factors compare with other student populations at the institution.
This IBR includes descriptive statistics of student outcomes, as well as inferential statistics discussing statistically significant outcomes when comparing minority male students with other student populations for the following school years: 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19. The EOY 1, 2, and 3 reports will add descriptive and inferential statistics for the 2019/20, 2020/21, and 2021/22 years.
Data for this report was extracted from the Watermark data warehouse. Used primarily to build and support the various risk models assigning and displaying student risk profiles within Student Success & Engagement, this data warehouse contains many of the data points of interest when exploring the long-term impact of student success initiatives on campus. This data warehouse is updated daily by the Student Success & Engagement product with the primary purpose to extract, transform and load institutional data from each of the primary systems on campus (SIS, LMS, Financial Aid, etc.). Data shown for 2016/17 will only include data from the three colleges with course history for Fall 2016, and for all institutions starting in Spring 2017.
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SUCCESSFUL STUDENTS |
Additional information about geographic information of students’ home addresses was gathered from the U.S, Census, American Community Survey, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and merged with students as well.
In order to begin comparing outcome measures across student populations, unique student subpopulations were defined and created using a combination of Gender, Ethnic, and Race codes generated within and pulled from each college’s SIS. A detailed distribution of each subpopulation is provided below.
For the purposes of this analysis we will focus primarily on the minority male and white male student populations. Students missing information on race/ethnicity and/or gender were removed from the analyses (approximately 2.0% of the postsecondary student population in 2018/19).
Unique student subpopulations were defined as either High School or Postsecondary:
| High School
CCP/CT |
Postsecondary
Associates (AAS/AGE/Transfer) |
*Not all colleges.
Below are the current student population numbers for the MMSI for the years covered in this IBR:
This section provides information for retention, persistence, and course completion rates at your institution. These institutional outcomes are derived from the set of all course records having positive attempted credit and displaying a course registration status of “Registered” or “Withdrawn” for the range of historical and impact terms at your institution.
The following three outcomes measures are evaluated for all population subgroups and their courses. The definition of each is provided in detail below:
A quantitative data analysis was performed and includes descriptive statistics demonstrating the observed outcome measures for multiple student populations. Using insights gathered during the development of the MMSI schools’ course completion and student persistence risk models, factors found significant in the prediction of course completion and/or student persistence were identified for further investigation. Two-proportion sample tests were used to determine the statistical significance of the difference in outcome measures for the factor influencing student success using a 95% confidence rate. Differences that are statistically significant (in other words, differences that are not due to chance and have sample sizes that are large enough to make inferences from) are presented throughout the report. We encourage you not to focus on the particular percentage differences, but to use these results to target your interventions.
This report includes two types of visualizations of data using color blind friendly palettes.
1. The red-gray-blue crosstabs include three numbers:
Blue cells indicate persistence or course completion rates above 74%, while red cells represent under 70%. NOTE: For the “Influence of Student Characteristics” crosstabs, data for 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2018/19 academic years were combined. As noted above, since the first term with a complete history of course activity for some institutions is Spring 2017, data shown for 2016/17 will only include Spring 2017 data for those institutions, and not Fall 2016 data.
2. The orange-blue line graphs include color-coded lines and percentages that represent the percentage of students who completed that outcome. Orange refers to white male students, and blue refers to minority male students.
Successfully completing a course can be viewed as a leading indicator for persistence and retention. Advisors, faculty, and other success network members can be proactive in their approach to planning, communicating, and identifying early on what students might need additional support.
The following visuals represent course completion rates by cohort. All new and returning students are represented for all courses taken by the postsecondary student population and high school population. Each cell contains the percentage of courses completed and the total number of courses attempted (in parentheses).
TAKEAWAY: Evaluating all courses taken by postsecondary students between 2016/17 and 2018/19, white male students complete courses at a higher rate than minority male students. In fact, with 95% confidence, we can state that the minority male population has a completion rate at least 8.2% lower than the white male population (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: When broken down by program pathway, the results suggest that the course completion gap among minority male and white male students documented above is largest for associates-degree seeking students (at least 9%, p < 0.001), and is slightly less severe among certificate-seeking students (at least a 2.6% gap, p < 0.001) and diploma-seeking students (2.9%, p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: Minority male high school students complete courses at a rate at least 3.9% lower than white male high school students (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: Minority male high school students in the CCP/CT pathway persist at a rate at least 3.4% lower than their white male counterparts (p < 0.001). This gap is at least 4.1% for CCP/CTE students (p < 0.001). There are no statistically significant differences between minority male and white male students enrolled in the Early College/Middle College pathway.
While retention can provide a measure for determining the long-term persistence behavior of new students returning for a second year, student persistence can provide a timelier indicator of success by demonstrating the percentage of students returning in a subsequent term. When measuring return on investment across all student success initiatives, persistence provides an institution with the most comprehensive baseline for understanding the impact across all student types and populations. Each cell contains the persistence rate and the total number of students who started the term (in parentheses).
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students persist at a rate at least 3.3% lower than their white male counterparts across the three years of this report (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: When broken down by program pathway, only Associates degree-seeking minority male students persist at a rate lower than their white male counterparts – a rate at least 3.9% lower (p < 0.001).
Retention rates provide a measure for determining the long-term persistence behavior of new fall students returning for a second fall at the institution.
The following visual represents retention rates for new matriculating students attempting credit during fall sessions. Each cell contains the percentage of students retained to the next fall, and the total number of students who started the academic year (in parentheses).
TAKEAWAY: Minority male postsecondary students across all eleven institutions are retained at a rate at least 4% lower than white male postsecondary students (p < 0.001).
The purpose of the following analysis is to uncover underlying factors that will provide insight into the subpopulation of minority male students so that your institution can generate strategies for efficient and effective outreach for minority male students. Each visual within this section represents next term persistence (or course completion in some cases) within each factor category for both new and returning students for both minority and white male students (unless otherwise specified).
We start our examination of the influence of student characteristics on outcomes by examining the persistence rates of male students by race/ethnicity and by whether they completed the FAFSA in the current year.
In the crosstab above, we combine information for the academic years of 2016/17 through 2018/19 to determine: a) if white and minority male students with the same FAFSA Status have statistically significant differences in their persistence rates, and b) if within race/ethnicity, male students differ in their persistence rates across FAFSA Status. For this table, 74% of minority males and 55% of white males completed the FAFSA.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students who have completed the FAFSA persist at a rate at least 4.7% lower than white male students who have completed the FAFSA (p < 0.001). The difference between those who have not completed the FAFSA is statistically significant, but small (1.5%, p < 0.001).
Using the information gathered from the current or prior FAFSA applications, we calculate the persistence rates for minority male and white male students across a variety of factors that will contribute to their ability to pay for tuition and other costs associated with a credential at the eleven MMSI schools. The first factor is whether they are dependent on someone else financially, or if they are considered independent.
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, dependent minority males are at least 3.2% less likely to persist than their independent counterparts (p < 0.001). Minority males who are listed as independent are at least 6% less likely to persist than independent white males (p < 0.001).
Among students who have provided this information, below are the persistence rates of postsecondary male students for whether they were single or married (students who are separated were dropped from the analysis due to their small sample sizes). Of those that reported this information, only about 10.1% of minority male and 17.3% white male students are married.
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, minority male students who are single persist at a rate at least 4.7% lower than single white male students (p < 0.001). Married minority male students persist at a rate at least 2.9% lower than married white male students (p < 0.001).
Students with dependents may find juggling academic work and family life difficult. Below, we present information regarding the persistence rates of male students by whether they reported any dependents. Of those that reported this information, about 15-16% of minority and white male students have dependents.
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, minority male students with dependents persist at a rate at least 5.9% lower than white male students with dependents (p < 0.001). Among those with no dependents, minority male students persist at a rate at least 4.4% lower than white male students (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, minority male students with personal AGIs over $15,000 persist at a rate at least 4.4% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). Among those with a personal AGI under $15,000, minority male students persist at a rate at least 3.2% lower than white male students (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, minority male students with parent AGIs over $15,000 persist at a rate at least 2.6% higher than similar white male students (p < 0.001). For those with a parental AGI less than $15,000, minority male students persist at a rate at least 3.2% lower than white male students (p < 0.001).
Expected Family Contribution (EFC) is calculated for students regardless of whether they completed the FAFSA, as those who did not complete the FAFSA are assumed to have an EFC higher than $1. Of those that reported this information, about 42% of minority male students have an EFC of $1 or more, versus 63.7% of white males.
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, minority male students with an EFC of $0 persist at a rate at least 5.4% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). Among those with an EFC of $1 or higher, minority male students persist at a rate at least 2.5% lower than white male students (p < 0.001).
Below is a measure of the combined aid students may receive when paying for college tuition. It covers all forms of free aid (not loans). Most students who applied for FAFSA received aid, but those who did not apply are placed in the “no/did not apply” category. For this factor, 64.7% of minority males and 45.4% of white males received some sort of free aid.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students who have received at least some free aid persist at a rate at least 4.6% lower than white male students who received some free aid (p < 0.001). Minority male students with no free aid (or who had not applied for aid) persist at a rate at least 2.3% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001).
Age and maturity could be a factor in persistence rates. Older students could have greater motivation or greater financial resources. Younger, traditionally aged students on the other hand, could have fewer family obligations or work requirements. Understanding the persistence rates of students in these age groups could illuminate the age group most at risk. Of those that reported this information, about 60% of minority male students are 18-22, versus 55.6% of white male students.
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, minority male students aged 18-22 persist at a rate at least 2.5% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). Minority male students aged 23+ persist at a rate at least 3.6% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001).
High school academic achievement is a valuable predictor in understanding student college persistence. About 25-26% of male students are missing high school GPA.
TAKEAWAY: Among those reporting the information, the only substantive statistically significant difference between minority male and white male students is when high school GPA is less than 2.75 (at least 4.7%, p < 0.001).
Persistence based on the cumulative GPA of returning postsecondary students is a more complete indicator of academic performance than high school GPA and is broken into three categories. About 37.3% of minority male and 54.5% of white male returning students have a cumulative GPA over 3.0.
TAKEAWAY: Returning minority male students with a cumulative GPA less than 2.5 persist at a rate at least 3.6% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). There are no statistically significant differences between minority and white male students in the other grade categories.
Students who have successfully completed a course in any prior term with an ‘A’ are on course to persist and graduate. They are also more likely to complete future courses. What is unknown, though, is whether there are racial/ethnic differences in this predictive relationship. About 80% of minority male and 86.3% of white male returning students have at least one A in a prior course.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male and white male students with at least one ‘A’ in a prior course do not statistically differ on persistence. However, minority male students without a prior ‘A’ persist at a rate at least 5.5% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students who earned an ‘A’ in a prior course have a course completion rate that is at least 5% lower than white male students who earned an ‘A’ in a prior course (p < 0.001). Among those without an ‘A’ in a course in a prior term, minority male students have course completion rates that are at least 6.7% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001)
Earning an ‘F’ in a course in a prior term can be a signal that a student is struggling and needs more support. The following visualizations will help determine whether this obstacle differs among minority and white male students. About 34.5% of minority male returning students earned an ‘F’ in a course in a prior term, versus 27% of the white male returning students.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students with one or more ‘F’s in a prior term persist at a rate at least 4.1% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). For those without an ‘F’, the difference is at least 0.9% (p < 0.01).
TAKEAWAY: Racial/ethnic differences in course completion vary among those students with an ‘F’ in one or more courses in prior terms. Minority male students with one or more ‘F’s in prior courses have course completion rates at least 6.8% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). But even among those without an ‘F’, minority male students have course completion rates at least 5.7% lower than similar white males (p < 0.001).
Students required to take developmental courses often require additional support in order to complete college coursework. Below is information on any racial/ethnic differences in course completion in developmental courses versus non-developmental courses. Please note that not all individual institutions will receive this information due to very small numbers of students in some categories.
TAKEAWAY: Minority and white male students in developmental courses have similar persistence rates. Minority male students with only non-developmental courses persist at a rate at least 8.1% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001; this rate is similar to the overall gap between these students).
Students who have failed developmental courses may be less likely to persist than those who passed. Below are the racial/ethnic differences in the impact of passing or failing these courses on persistence.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students who pass their developmental courses persist at a rate at least 6.6% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001).Among those who fail, minority male students persist at a rate at least 3.6% lower than white male students (p < 0.01).
Racial/ethnic differences in student persistence rates based on whether returning students passed or failed prior English or Math Courses are presented below. About 35.8% of minority male and 28.3% of white male returning students who have taken a college-level English or math course have failed.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students persist at similar rates to white male students when they pass their English or Math courses. Minority male students who have failed their English or Math course persist at a rate at least 2% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.01).
Below are visualizations depicting persistence based on whether returning students have dropped one or more previous courses. About 47.5% of minority male and 41.3% of white male returning students have dropped one or more courses.
TAKEAWAY: Returning minority male students persist at a rate at least 2.2-2.7% lower than white male students, regardless if they have ever dropped a course before (p < 0.001).
Below are visualizations depicting persistence based on whether returning students have withdrawn from a previous course. About 48.3% of minority male and 43.6% of white male returning students have withdrawn from one or more courses.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students who have withdrawn from one or more courses persist at a rate at least 3.2% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). The difference between minority and white male students who have never withdrawn from a course is at least 1.2% (p < 0.001).
Students who are taking courses full-time will likely differ from part-time students in both course completion and persistence. Below are visualizations of this relationship based on student subpopulation. Approximately the same percentage of minority male and white male students are full-time (34-36%).
TAKEAWAY: Full-time minority and white male students persist at a similar rate. However, part-time minority male students persist at a rate at least 4.1% lower than part-time white male students (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: For course completion, full-time minority male students complete courses at a rate at least 5.1% lower than full-time white male students (p < 0.001). Consistent with persistence, part-minority male students complete courses at a rate at least 9.3% lower than part-time white male students (p < 0.001), a gap that is larger than the overall 8.1% course completion gap between the two groups.
Like enrollment status, the number of credits attempted could help shed light on racial/ethnic differences in persistence. About 16% of minority male and 17.5% of white male students have attempted 14 or more credits.
TAKEAWAY: Minority and white male students who have attempted 14 or more credits persist at a similar rate. The gap between those attempting 10-13 credits is small, at 2% (p < 0.001). Minority male students attempting fewer than 10 credits persist at a rate at least 4.2% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001).
The percentage of online courses taken by minority males is about 29%, and 32% for white male students. Below are visualizations to highlight how course delivery impacts course completion.
TAKEAWAY: The gap between minority male and white male students on course completion is larger for online courses. Minority male students in online courses persist at a rate at least 11.7% lower than white male students in online courses (p < 0.001). In seated courses, that gap is at least 6.8% (p < 0.001).
Missing class can be detrimental to both course completion and persistence. Below are visualizations that highlight these relationships based on the subpopulations. Since attendance information was not provided for 2016/2017 for some schools, or any year for others, we are only showing information for 2017/18 and 2018/19 for the 6 schools with enough information. About 12-14% of courses taken by either group of males have 4 or more absences.
TAKEAWAY: The gap between minority male and white male students on course failure among those with 3 or fewer absences is 6.5% (p < 0.000). Among those with 4 or more, the gap is at least 8.4% (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students with 3 or fewer absences persist at a rate at least 2.2% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001).
Understanding the neighborhood students come from can help us understand non-school factors that could contribute to student outcomes. These neighborhood factors are based on the zip code of the student’s permanent address.
The estimated median household income for North Carolina is $52,413 (2018 population estimates from the U.S. Census). Students who lived in locales with median incomes less than this were compared to those in locales with more. About 31% of minority male and 46% of white male students live in higher median income areas.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students living in higher income areas persist at a rate at least 4.3% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). Minority male students in lower income areas persist at a rate at least 2.6% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001).
A diversity index was computed to measure the diversity of the postal code where the student resides. Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) methods were then used to group the diversity index into two levels representing significantly different outcome measures. The visualizations of persistence rates of all male post-secondary students based on the diversity of their residential locale are presented below. Higher diversity for the eleven schools was defined as 53.5% or more diverse.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students living in higher diversity areas persist at a rate at least 4% lower than white male students in those areas (p < 0.001). In lower diversity areas, that gap is only 1.5% (p < 0.001)
Students with longer commutes may find it more difficult to remain enrolled on campus, so below
are visualizations representing this relationship. About 42% of minority male and 46% of white male
students live 10 miles or more away from campus.
TAKEAWAY: Minority male students who live more than 10 miles away from campus persist at a rate at least 4.1% lower than similar white male students (p < 0.001). This gap is only 2.4% for those who live within 10 miles of campus (p < 0.001).
The following representations of persistence and course completion risk demonstrate the proportion of students falling within each risk level and the actual outcomes experienced for each prediction (made at the beginning of the term). These visuals are important to validate our assumption that using the risk indicators built into Watermark Engage are valuable tools in directing action towards those that need intervention the most. The colors used to visualize the outcomes have been recalibrated to be referential – low-risk students are in blue, medium-risk students are in gray, and high-risk students are in red.
TAKEAWAY: Across the three risk levels, minority male students complete courses at a lower rate. This gap is at least 2.5% for those in the low risk level, 1.7% for medium risk, and 2 % for high risk students (p < 0.001).
TAKEAWAY: For persistence, only minority male who are high risk persist at a rate lower than their high risk white male counterparts (at least 2.7% lower, p > 0.01).
For the 2016-2019 school years, minority male students at the eleven MMSI schools persisted at a rate at least 3.3% lower than white male students.
Below we highlight student factors that show persistence gaps similar to or higher than this 3.3% overall gap:
For the 2016-2019 school years, minority male students at the eleven MMSI schools completed courses at a rate at least 8.2% lower than white male students.
Below we highlight student factors that show course completion gaps similar to or higher than this 8.2% overall gap (please note that not all factors listed in the report were examined for course completion):
Combined, these recommendations will increase student and staff engagement, which will help lead to further increases in course completion, persistence, and retention. Watermark again thanks the eleven NCCCS for the continued opportunity to help serve and engage its students. We take pride in our partnership and welcome continuous feedback to help improve our offerings and provide the best Watermark experience that we can offer. As always, to discuss any aspect of this report in more detail, please reach out to Heather Taynor, Vice President for Student and Customer Success, at htaynor@watermarkinsights.com.
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