The COVID-19 pandemic pushed nearly every college course online in March 2020. As the Fall 2020 term begins, with a little more time and planning, colleges and universities are grappling with the decision regarding how they will navigate course delivery while keeping students and staff healthy. As of August 3, 2020, the Chronicle of Higher Education reports that over 40% of institutions listed are planning to go completely online or planning a hybrid approach (a mix of online and in-person learning), though it is likely these numbers will change as cases surge in parts of the country.
Moving higher education online in some form is being done out of necessity as colleges and universities try to keep their students and employees safe, but this movement comes on the heels of a steady increase in online college course participation.
As institutions look toward the 2020-2021 school year, what can they expect regarding course completion rates and year-to-year persistence and retention? Do racial/ethnic and income achievement gaps increase or decrease in an online environment?
This report will synthesize research regarding online versus in-person course outcomes in undergraduate courses. The end of the report will provide recommendations for faculty, advisors, and institutions on how to best implement online education.
Online learning is often considered synonymous with distance education, but it is important to separate online learning in its current form from early distance education. Online learning today can be provided synchronously or asynchronously through the Internet using web conferencing applications, using content provided by the faculty member and/or found through the Internet, and shared through the institution’s Learning Management System (LMS).
This modern conception of online learning should be separated from the correspondence courses emblematic of earlier forms of distance learning and educational television.(3) In addition to completely online or completely in-person courses, hybrid or blended learning courses offer a mix of in-person and online instruction, capitalizing on content or technologies online, but still requiring a (reduced) in-person component.
“In the spring, the campus had to make a rapid shift to online learning and instructors lamented the challenges of maintaining classroom rapport and staying flexible in a chaotic time.” – Mercer Bufter, Academic Technology Specialist at Alamance Community College (ACC).
As instructional technology has improved, so has the number of college students taking online courses, especially in the last ten years. For Fall 2012, 25.8% of undergraduate students took at least one distance education class. This rate increased to 34.5% of undergraduate students for Fall 2018. Students who take online courses tend to be older, female, and in fields such as business/management and computer/information science. Online course takers also tend to be employed and are more academically prepared, especially among the community college population. What is particularly impressive about this trend is that online enrollments trended upwards even as overall college enrollments have declined since the highs of the Great Recession.
While much of the increase in online and distance education courses has been concentrated in a handful of for-profit institutions where students are more likely to enroll in exclusively online programs, the trend has been seen across all sectors and among students taking just one or two online courses. The fear of an increase in COVID-19 cases is spurring almost half of colleges and universities to be online to some extent in the fall, if not completely online.
Prior to the pandemic, colleges saw many potential benefits to increasing their online offerings, with over 85% of institutions offering some courses or whole degree programs online as of 2012 (an increase of 15% since 2002). First, offering online courses improves access, flexibility, and convenience for students who might not otherwise have the time to meet in person. This is especially attractive for older, nontraditional students who of ten have work and family commitments to consider when going back to school. Second, this increase in access could provide institutions savings if they are attracting more students without incurring additional costs, though Xu and Jaggars (2013) suggest higher education administrators believe that online courses are at least as expensive as in-person courses because of the start-up and recurring technological costs, training faculty, and other costs.
An initial search of research on student outcomes in online courses pulls up hundreds of studies across almost all disciplines comparing online versus in-person courses on a whole host of college student outcomes. But not all research is created equal. In-depth reviews of the literature suggest that most studies in this area suffer from small, nonrandom samples of students, reviews of single courses, or simple comparisons rather than rigorous causal statistical analyses. Such research is unlikely to be truly causal and fails to be generalizable to other courses, students, or institutions.
Rigorous research on the comparison between online and in-person courses needs to consider a number of factors. Researchers need to consider whether students who choose online courses are different from those who choose in-person courses, as they are different in observable and unobservable ways. Xu and Jaggars (2013) found in their sample of community colleges that students who select into online courses are higher performing than those in in-person courses before the start of the course. Without controlling for these factors, simply comparing the grades of students in online courses versus in-person courses could misrepresent the benefits of online courses because these high achieving students would bias the results upward. Ideally, researchers could account for this “selection” into online courses by randomly assigning students to identical online and face-to-face courses. Random assignment would avoid any potential bias introduced by students choosing their own courses. But research that is a true randomized study is rare in this area, partially because of issues brought up by Institutional Review Boards of how to recruit and incentivize students.
When a randomized trial study is not possible, at the very least researchers should control for important student factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, academic performance, prior experience with online courses, whether they have a job and how many hours they work, their family situation, and educational motivation. When determining whether online or in-person courses are more effective, researchers must also consider differences among types of courses (e.g. STEM versus social science), instructors (e.g. tenured versus non-tenured), types of institutions (e.g. four-year private or two-year public colleges), and selectivity of institutions (e.g. highly selective or open-access).
It could be the case that effective online courses are more common in certain majors, institutions, and/or at different points in the degree process. For instance, an institution may provide more online courses at the advanced level for older, more established students. Considering the type of student outcomes is also important in representing the real effect of online versus in-person courses. For instance, some research compares the end-of-term grades of students enrolled in similar online versus in-person courses, but remove from the comparison any students who withdrew from the course. In doing so, this research upwardly biases the results since the students dropping the courses are likely to have the weakest academic performance while the students who remain are the strongest. Failure to consider withdrawal rates is especially detrimental in studies of community colleges where withdrawal is more common than at selective four-year colleges. Instead, research should also consider rates of course withdrawal in addition to course grades.
Understanding the many factors that influence student outcomes in college courses addressed above, it is
potentially no surprise that the research in this area is mixed. Results generally fit into two areas: 1) student
outcomes in online courses are just as good or better than in-person courses, or 2) student outcomes in online courses are worse than in-person courses. Below are just a few of the more rigorous studies on this question and what they might tell us about preparing for the fall.
Russell’s (1999) research and the research that has followed on the “no significant difference” phenomenon generally suggests that online courses can be just as effective as in-person courses. While Russell’s research was conducted in the early age of internet technology and internet use, other research since then finds similar results. For instance, in a study comparing students in a large lecture hall-type microeconomics course with those in an identical online course (who had access to the same lecture videotaped), the students in the videotaped condition did better.
In an effort to bring the disparate research together in a coherent fashion, a number of meta-analyses that have synthesized the research also found no significant (or a very small) difference in online and in-person course outcomes.(20, 21) The most prominent in this literature was conducted by the U.S. Department of Education. Synthesizing online course outcome research conducted between January 1996 to July 2008, this report only included studies with random assignment or quasi-experimental designs in an effort to focus on only the most rigorous and causal research. The authors conclude that students in online learning courses perform the same or slightly better than their in-person counterparts, on average.
However, in response to this report, Jaggars and Bailey (2010) pointed out several flaws, including the issue that many of the studies included were not based on full semesters. Many of the studies were also of short interventions and thus could not speak to the attention, motivation, and persistence needed for a semester-long course online. Of the 7 studies that included a full semester’s course, the results were inconsistent (with some suggesting better, worse, or no significant differences), and were all based on small samples at mid- to large-sized selective or highly selective universities. The authors note that these results are not generalizable to students, such as those at community colleges who are typically less academically prepared.
Research showing that students do worse in online courses can also be found in the literature. An economics paper out of Stanford using a strong instrumental variable approach finds online course-taking leads to worse short- and long-term outcomes than in-person classes at DeVry University, a large for-profit four-year university. Student learning was lower in the online version of these standardized courses, and students who had taken one or more online courses experienced lower grades in later courses and in their persistence in college. These results are not just relegated to the for-profit college model: economics students at three very different public universities on the East Coast also performed worse in an online course versus an in-person course.
In a study of political science majors at the University of Central Florida, Glazier et al. (2019) found that, even at a university with strong training and awards in online teaching, students in their online courses were less likely to be retained and had lower GPAs.
When focused specifically on their large transfer population, the authors found that the gap between transfer and non-transfer students gets bigger the more courses these students take online.
Some of the strongest research in this area focuses on community colleges, where students are more likely to be older, female, racial/ethnic minority, and low-income, and many gravitate towards online courses and programs to accommodate their work and family lives. Community colleges educated over 6.7 million students in Fall 2017, almost 40% of the college student population, suggesting this research represents a substantial portion of college students. This research finds that – even when controlling for the types of students who take online courses – student outcomes in online courses are worse than in in-person courses. In separate studies using community college information for states like Virginia, Washington, and California, this research unequivocally highlights the negative effects of online course taking for community college students in course persistence and course grades. Courses examined included entry-level English and math courses, which often act as gatekeepers for more education, as well as developmental and non-developmental courses.
But even the community college research is a bit mixed. While researchers generally find that short-term outcomes are worse for online students versus those who take in-person courses in community colleges, there is some disagreement regarding long-term outcomes. Xu and Jaggers (2011) find that students who take online courses early in their tenure at a college were less likely to return in later terms and less likely to complete a degree or transfer to a four-year college. However, other research suggests that long-term outcomes like degree completion are actually better for those students who take online courses, possibly because the flexibility and convenience of online courses provide more opportunities for students to complete the degree, if with a slightly worse GPA.
Research on racial/ethnic and income gaps in student learning in online courses is less prevalent, but generally suggests that the gaps that already exist between these students and their white, higher-income counterparts are exacerbated in an online environment.
In a study of Washington state community colleges, the authors found that everyone did poorly in online courses, but those who struggled the most were young minority male students and students with lower grades. These results were replicated in a study of California community colleges.
There is also evidence that Hispanic students are particularly harmed by online courses. Thus, online courses in this environment exacerbate gender and racial inequalities in course outcomes. This is extremely disheartening as online courses have been lauded as providing additional access to these students in particular, who are more likely to enroll in community colleges.
Online courses are not the only solution considered for the Fall 2020 semester. Hybrid learning courses are
also being implemented at institutions in an effort to reduce the time in seats and/or the number of students in a classroom. The research on hybrid courses is slightly more positive. Hybrid courses, which supplement in-person learning with online components, may lead to similar if not more positive outcomes than in-person courses, possibly because of the additional time and content covered. While these hybrid courses may not improve convenience or flexibility for students who otherwise cannot commit to in-person courses, results suggest that when online components are used to improve the pedagogy in a course, students may benefit. These courses may cost more in resources and faculty time, but as faculty build out this temporary course structure in the face of the pandemic, it is possible that they may retain the more effective portions of online learning in the future.
In summary, when rigorous statistical analyses of online versus in-person courses are conducted, some
suggest that students do better (or at least no different) in online courses versus in-person courses, and some say students do worse. Because of the issues outlined above regarding how difficult it is to conduct research on this topic that is rigorous, causal, and generalizable, little consensus can be reached. Because of the great diversity in students, instructors, content, and institutions, it may not be possible to know whether online courses always lead to better or worse outcomes than in-person courses. What is the individual faculty member or institution to make of this research? Outlined below are some obstacles to online learning noted in the literature, and some tips for instructors and institutions in implementing online and hybrid courses for the fall.
When moving to online or hybrid instruction, faculty and institutions should be aware of the obstacles to
positive student learning. In a qualitative study of community colleges, the Community College Research
Center suggested that mismatched expectations between students and faculty may play a role in their dissatisfaction and/or lack of positive outcomes in online courses. Instructors surveyed in this study expected students to have more technological skills than they actually had, and thus did not provide instruction on how to navigate the technical components of the course. Instructors also felt students should have a sense of responsibility for their learning management, while students felt instructors should help them learn and meet those responsibilities. But instructors rarely gave strategies to help with this. Thus online courses might not be designed to help students learn the different (or heightened) set of skills necessary to succeed in that new environment. Students may also underestimate the levels of self-motivation and self-driven learning that is necessary in an online course. When they choose online courses, students try to avoid those that are perceived to be too difficult online (like languages or the lab sciences) and try to avoid those that seem to be the most “important” or “interesting” courses, such as those in their majors.(14) But course choices will largely be made for them by their institution during the upcoming semester, so students are likely taking online courses they never would have chosen in a different environment.
Another issue is that instructors lack the ability to visibly see and gauge when students are struggling, something they can more readily see in the in-person environment. In addition, students lack the opportunity to see how other students role model good academic behavior in their interactions with the instructor. Thus the onus falls on the student to ask for help; yet we know that certain students, especially those from working-class families, may not ask for help when needed. Surveys of students and faculty about the Spring 2020 term suggest neither group was happy with how the term ended; this was especially true for Hispanic students (Figure 1). While some institutions might give students the option to take some online, in-person, or hybrid courses, the current environment is somewhat addressing the “selection” problem endemic to this research, especially if in the end, college is completely online again due to health concerns for faculty, staff and student safety.
Percent of Students Experiencing Problems as “Major”, by Race/Ethnicity
When planning for the fall semester, researchers suggest that faculty first focus on pedagogy, and then focus on the technology to convey the content. Like with any course, student learning outcomes should be first and foremost. Collaborating with other faculty and/or instructional designers can help bring a more effective team-based approach to developing a course. When choosing and designing course technology, a What Works Clearinghouse report suggests there is moderate evidence that instructors who follow these criteria have better student outcomes:
Also, important to an online or in-person course is a clear course design and layout. While an important part of any course, this is especially important in an online course as students of ten need to navigate course
materials on their own without the easy-to-reach support of the instructor. A clearly designed syllabus that
utilizes the institution’s LMS can reduce the challenges students face in knowing what the expectations and
requirements of the course are.
Considerable interaction with and among students in an online environment is also crucial, and one of the areas students said was lacking about the transition to the Spring 2020 semester (Figure 2). In lieu of in-person contact, faculty may incorporate emails, text messaging, discussion posts, and/or synchronous course meetings or individual meetings with students in an effort to increase engagement with the course material and critical thinking skills.
Satisfaction With Post-Covid-19 Course by Number of Recommended Online Practices Used
Coursework is not the only aspect of college life that is moving online. College advisors are having to adjust
to the move online as well, and surveys of students suggest their services may be more crucial during the
pandemic than ever. NACADA, the professional organization for academic advisors, is curating a list of
webinars and best practices from across the profession. NASPA, another organization dedicated to advising
and student affairs, is also bringing resources together for college professionals.
Institutions can help instructors with moving online by building instruction of online learning skills into
student orientation or other beginning of the year activities. This instruction could focus not only on the technology used at the institution, but also on the skills necessary to stay motivated and on task in an online course. “Building these skills may not only help close the online performance gap, but may also improve students’ overall performance and long-term persistence in college”.
Providing training and support to instructors is also crucial. Online teaching certification through the Association of College and University Educators (ACUE) and other organizations focus on course design, instructional technology, and professional development. Since instructional technology changes, providing this training in an online fashion would also insure faculty stay on top of their game.
Understanding the demographics of the student population is also crucial, as not all students have access to high-speed internet or a computer at home, and the institution has closed the library and computer labs. In a survey of adults in 2019, the Pew Research Center estimates that only 63% of rural Americans have access to high-speed broadband internet compared to 79% of suburban Americans. And while smartphones may seem ubiquitous, upwards of 30% of rural Americans do not have access to one. Institutions with a higher percentage of low-income and racial/ethnic minority students may also run into this same problem, as only 62% of Hispanic and 66% of Black adults have high-speed broadband internet, versus 79% of White adults. Access by income ranges from 56% of those who make under $30,000 to 92% of those who make over $75,000.
Institutions may also want to utilize early warning systems that bring together faculty and staff to flag and target resources to students who are struggling in online courses. Early warning systems like Watermark Student Success & Engagement can send automatic and/or manual alerts to students and their support networks when attendance, participation, or grades become a concern. These tools can ensure that, even when we can’t see students face-to-face, we can track warning signs and intervene before they drop out.
It is unclear at this point how the massive move to online and hybrid learning will impact student learning outcomes this upcoming academic year. Even in the best scenarios, the research is mixed regarding whether students do just as well, better, or worse in online courses versus in-person courses. The current pandemic does not allow us to choose whether to move online – even colleges that originally planned on meeting in person are having to scramble to go online in light of recent surges. But we can use research to implement the new plans as best as possible. With the tips provided above and a robust student retention software like Student Success & Engagement, colleges can provide the best education they can.
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